KUALA LUMPUR: MIDF Amanah Investment Bank expects retail trade to grow 5.5% in 2022, supported by easing of containment measures, economic reopening and gradually improving macroeconomic data.
The investment bank said improving macroeconomic data forecast strong consumer spending in the fourth quarter of 2021 (Q4 2021) as well as 2022.
“We expect private consumption to grow 6% for 2022. With interstate travel allowed, we expect the service sector to benefit and grow 7.1% for 2022,” he said in a note yesterday. of research.
The investment bank said it also expects the private consumption and services sector to contribute positively to fourth-quarter 2021 gross domestic product growth.
It reported that the three-month moving average of retail trade sales for the fourth quarter of 2021 increased 5.1% year-on-year (year-on-year) compared to a decline of 9.1% year-on-year from the previous quarter. third quarter of 2021.
“Consumer spending is expected to remain on an upward trajectory for 2022, supported by a significantly high immunization rate, improving labor market, tax incentives and steady inflationary pressure,” he said.
He said the market is adjusting to the new normal and retail spending patterns to change slightly from pre-pandemic years, especially on information, communication and technology and household goods, among others. , through work and distance learning agreements.
Meanwhile, the investment bank said consumer spending remained on an expansionary path as Malaysia’s retail sales growth moderated to 3.5% year-on-year in December 2021.
“All three components continue to register positive growth led by motor vehicles (1.5% yoy), wholesale trade (4.1% yoy) and retail trade (3.5% year-on-year),” he said.
He said all components improved on a consecutive monthly basis despite the moderating trends.
He added that the expansion of distributive trade sales between the two countries was fueled by, among other things, a modest recovery in the labor market and the reopening of domestic economic activities. – Bernama