Business climate survey in catering & similar and retail trade for January 2022

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MACAO, March 17 – Information from the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) indicates that the receipts of restaurants and similar establishments surveyed increased by 0.3% year-on-year in January 2022; revenue from Chinese restaurants increased by 5.5% while revenue from Western restaurants and local style cafes, Congee & Noodle Shops fell by 10.8% and 7.6% respectively. At the same time, sales at surveyed retailers rose 16.3% year on year in January, with a notable increase in sales at leather goods retailers (+24.0%), department stores (+20.0%) and watch, clock and jewelry retailers. (+19.6%); in contrast, sales by motor vehicle retailers (-23.9%) posted a marked decline.

Compared to December 2021, receipts from restaurants and similar establishments surveyed fell by 5.4% in January 2022, with receipts from Western restaurants (-23.2%) recording the largest drop. Elsewhere, sales at surveyed retailers fell 19.5% month on month in January, with auto retailers (-52.7%), cosmetics and sanitary ware retailers (-35.1 %), retailers of watches, clocks and jewelery (-34.8%) and department stores (-32.4%) recorded a sharp drop.

In terms of business expectations for February, 41% of restaurants and similar establishments surveyed expect their revenue to decline month over month; the corresponding share for local-style cafes, Congee & Noodle Shops was the highest, at 64%. In contrast, 30% of establishments surveyed expected their revenue to increase month-over-month in February, and the corresponding proportion for Chinese restaurants was 49%. Meanwhile, 32% of retailers surveyed expected month-over-month sales to decline in February, and the corresponding shares for motor vehicle retailers (46%) and supermarkets (44%) were relatively large. In contrast, 24% of retailers surveyed expected a monthly increase in sales in February. The corresponding proportions for department stores and leather goods retailers were 42% and 40% respectively.

The business outlook index (BOI), which reflects the trend of monthly variations in revenue anticipated by the establishments surveyed, was below 50 for restaurants and similar establishments (44.6) and retail trade (46.1) , indicating that respondents in both industries expected a less favorable business outlook in February compared to January.

The Restaurant and Similar Establishments and Retail Business Climate Survey sample includes 229 restaurants and similar establishments and 161 retailers, which accounted for 53.5% and 70.6% of industry revenue respectively in 2019. The results of the survey have not been extrapolated. The commercial performance of the reference month is reflected by the evolution of the receipts of the establishments and merchants of the sample of the reference month compared to the month of comparison. The BOI value is between 0 and 100; an index value above 50 implies that the industry has higher trading expectations for the coming month compared to the comparison month, while an index value below 50 indicates the opposite.

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