USD / CHF forecast before Swiss inflation and retail data
The USD / CHF price was in a narrow range on Monday morning as investors waited for the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in Switzerland. It is trading at 0.9300, which is slightly lower than last week’s high of 0.9367.
Swiss inflation to come
The biggest catalyst for the USD / CHF price on Monday will be the latest Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales figures. The data will be released on Monday morning.
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In general, analysts expect data to show that Swiss consumer inflation remained unchanged at 0.2% in September. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is expected to drop from 0.9% to 1.1%. Yet the country’s inflation is significantly lower than that of other countries.
For example, in the United States, consumer prices increased by more than 5% while in the euro area, data showed prices hit a 13-year high of 3.4% in September.
The USD / CHF price will also react to the latest data on retail sales in Switzerland. The figures should show that sales rose in August after declining 2.6% the month before.
These figures will come two weeks after the last Swiss National Bank (SNB) decision. The bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged. He also warned that the CHF is significantly overvalued and will do everything possible to stabilize the currency.
The SNB’s monetary stabilization measures have increased. In 2020, the SNB spent more than $ 100 billion on foreign exchange intervention. The bank also spent more than $ 9.65 billion on foreign exchange interventions in the second quarter.
The biggest catalyst for the USD / CHF pair will be the last US non-farm payrolls numbers that are scheduled for Friday this week.
USD / CHF forecast
The four hour chart shows that the USD / CHF pair is trading at 0.9300. This price is slightly lower than last week’s high at 0.9367. It sits slightly above the upper portion of the ascending channel and sits along the 25 and 50 day moving averages.
Therefore, the pair will likely maintain a downtrend this week as bears target the lower side of the channel at around 0.9250. On the other hand, a move above the key resistance at 0.9340 will invalidate the bearish view.
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