IELKA: Slight increase in retail sales in the second half of the year
A slight increase in retail sales in the second half of the year and a complete reversal in positive economic conditions predict sector executives according to an IELKA survey.
The results of the survey conducted from September 20 to 30, 2021 using a questionnaire among 160 senior executives and business leaders show the following:
• Small increase of 0.7% of sales in the second half of 2021 compared to the correspondent of 2020 and of 0.8% in total in 2021
• Total restoration of the level of the economic climate to pre-coronavirus levels.
• Reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on day-to-day business, but increase the length of time the market will be affected.
Compared to industry sales expectations, a high percentage of respondents is recorded 43% who believe that industry sales will increase in the current semester, with a small percentage who think they will show a decrease of 21%. On average, executives who took part in the survey estimate that there will be a 0.7% increase in sales in the first half of July 2021-December 2021 compared to the same half of 2020, while for any the year 2021 they estimate an increase in sales of around 0.8% on average. It should be noted that the forecast also includes the Christmas period, which traditionally accounts for around 10% of annual sales.
The 4 reasons for the optimism of the market
The positive estimates regarding the increase in sales in the industry are attributed to four main factors. Specifically, according to the research, these factors are the increase in tourist traffic of 2021, the recently announced tax relief package, the increase in home service / delivery – i.e. e-shopping – and economic growth.
Tourist traffic in 2021, which has already exceeded all expectations, has given a significant “injection” of liquidity into state coffers, as companies in the sector express satisfaction with the continued influx of tourists to the country. , which is not expected to stop until November. Already, hotels on the country’s main islands have reservations for October and November while charter flights continue to arrive in Greece at an almost unrelenting rate. Another important factor for optimism is the tax relief plan, as households and businesses have managed not only to survive the difficult period of the pandemic, but also to get back on their feet. As for the third factor of optimism, e-shopping, it seems that they have remained because more and more consumers choose them after their quarantine, opening up a new market in stores which has hitherto been unexplored. Finally, economic growth, with the draft budget at 6.1 for 2021 and 4.5% in 2022 with cumulative growth of 10.8% over the two years 2021-2022, gives the market one more reason to to be optimistic.
Price increases and masks are negative factors for the market
However, all is not rosy in the market, as reported by IELKA. The strongly negative effect on sales is attributed to increases in product prices and measures to restrict access to supermarkets. Other factors associated with the pandemic, such as the epidemiological burden, the use of masks and focus restrictions, do not appear to have a significant impact on sales, although their impact remains consistently negative.